The Impact of Global Geopolitical Risk and Other Factors on Gold Market in China
Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, 50603, Malaysia
Ahmad Farid Osman
Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, 50603, Malaysia
Adilah Binti Abdul Ghapor
Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, 50603, Malaysia
Abstract
This research analyses the drivers of gold price movements in China using monthly observations spanning 2008 to 2024, with specific focus on geopolitical risk as a potential explanatory factor. It seeks to determine whether geopolitical risk (GPR) significantly influences gold price behaviour within an emerging economy setting. To empirically examine both short-run and long-run linkages, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework is applied. The model incorporates China’s spot gold price alongside a set of explanatory variables, namely the geopolitical risk index (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), international benchmark gold prices from COMEX, financial market volatility measured via the VIX, and selected macroeconomic controls. The empirical findings reveal that China’s domestic gold prices are primarily shaped by movements in international gold markets, indicating strong financial and pricing integration with global gold benchmarks. Volatility in financial markets (VIX) shows a statistically meaningful short-term influence, supporting the interpretation of gold as a defensive asset during episodes of heightened market uncertainty. In contrast, geopolitical risk (GPR) does not demonstrate a statistically significant long-term effect on Chinese gold price formation. This outcome implies that the impact of external geopolitical shocks is likely absorbed or dampened by domestic structural and institutional characteristics within China’s financial system. Overall, the results offer valuable insights for policymakers, regulatory authorities, and market participants regarding cross-border risk transmission mechanisms and strategies for portfolio diversification in the Chinese gold market.