Geopolitical Reconfiguration in Central Asia under Western Sanctions: The Impact of China-Kazakhstan Cooperation on Regional Stability

Abstract

Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, has experienced substantial effects from Western sanctions imposed on Russia. These sanctions have placed the region in a complex position, compelling Central Asian states to balance their longstanding relations with Russia while simultaneously establishing new economic frameworks with China through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Consequently, this evolving situation has contributed to regional uncertainty and presented notable challenges to human security. This study seeks to investigate the influence of Western sanctions on the economic stability of Central Asia, evaluate China-Kazakhstan collaboration within the context of the BRI, analyse the shifting geopolitical landscape’s implications for human security, and assess the combined effects of these dynamics. A quantitative research design was employed, utilising a structured questionnaire survey administered to 120 respondents. Participants included experts specialising in diplomacy, economics, and regional development across Central Asia. Data analysis involved descriptive statistics, correlation, and regression analysis, using SPSS as the statistical tool. The analysis revealed significant correlations among Western sanctions, China-Kazakhstan cooperation, and regional stability. The sanctions imposed by Western nations demonstrated a moderate impact on Russia’s trade and investment, resulting in increased economic dependence on China.  The findings underscore the dual influence of Western sanctions and China-Kazakhstan cooperation on Central Asia’s geopolitical configuration. Although sanctions have prompted Kazakhstan to strengthen its economic and political ties with China, this shift has simultaneously raised concerns regarding sovereignty and excessive dependence on Chinese influence.